Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of information, or whether it reflects a rational response to financial, reputational and other incentives operating for forecasters. In several G7 countries – Japan, Italy, Germany and France – there is evidence of a change in the trend growth rate. In these circumstances, standard tests for rationality are inappropriate, and a bias towards optimism in the consensus forecast is inevitable as rational forecasters learn about the new trend. In all countries there is evidence that individual forecasters converge on the consensus forecast too slowly. However, the persistent optimism of some forecasters, and the persistent pessimism of others, is not consistent with the predictions of models of “rational bias” that have become popular in the finance and economics literature.Macroeconomic forecasts, judgemental forecasting, bias

European Paediatric Formulation Initiative (EuPFI)-Formulating Ideas for Better Medicines for Children.

© American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists 2016, published by Springer US, available online at doi: https://doi.org/10.1208/s12249-016-0584-1The European Paediatric Formulation Initiative (EuPFI), founded in 2007, aims to promote and facilitate the preparation of better and safe medicines for children through linking research and information dissemination. It brings together the capabilities of the industry, academics, hospitals, and regulators within a common platform in order to scope the solid understanding of the major issues, which will underpin the progress towards the future of paediatric medicines we want.The EuPFI was formed in parallel to the adoption of regulations within the EU and USA and has served as a community that drives research and dissemination through publications and the organisation of annual conferences. The membership and reach of this group have grown since its inception in 2007 and continue to develop and evolve to meet the continuing needs and ambitions of research into and development of age appropriate medicines. Five diverse workstreams (age-appropriate medicines, Biopharmaceutics, Administration Devices, Excipients and Taste Assessment & Taste Masking (TATM)) direct specific workpackages on behalf of the EuPFI. Furthermore, EuPFI interacts with multiple diverse professional groups across the globe to ensure efficient working in the area of paediatric medicines. Strong commitment and active involvement of all EuPFI stakeholders have proved to be vital to effectively address knowledge gaps related to paediatric medicines, discuss potential areas for further research and identify issues that need more attention and analysis in the future.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Turbulent Origin of the Galactic-Center Magnetic Field: Nonthermal Radio Filaments

A great deal of study has been carried out over the last twenty years on the origin of the magnetic activity in the Galactic center. One of the most popular hypotheses assumes milli-Gauss magnetic field with poloidal geometry, pervading the inner few hundred parsecs of the Galactic-center region. However, there is a growing observational evidence for the large-scale distribution of a much weaker field of B \lesssim 10 micro G in this region. Here, we propose that the Galactic-center magnetic field originates from turbulent activity that is known to be extreme in the central hundred parsecs. In this picture the spatial distribution of the magnetic field energy is highly intermittent, and the regions of strong field have filamentary structures. We propose that the observed nonthermal radio filaments appear in (or, possibly, may be identified with) such strongly magnetized regions. At the same time, the large-scale diffuse magnetic field is weak. Both results of our model can explain the magnetic field measurements of the the Galactic-center region. In addition, we discuss the role of ionized outflow from stellar clusters in producing the long magnetized filaments perpendicular to the Galactic plane.Comment: 11 pages, accepted to ApJ Letter

Colour of Medicines and Children’s Acceptability? A Systematic Literature Review of Children’s Perceptions about Colours of Oral Dosage Forms

The colour of a product plays an important role in consumer experiences, and in the context of pharmaceutical products, this could potentially affect a patient’s expectations, behaviours, and adherence. Several studies have been conducted on adults, but little is known about children’s opinions on colours of medicines and to what extent medicines’ colour affects their acceptability. To address this gap, a systematic search in PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE, and Web of Science was conducted. Two authors independently screened the titles, abstracts, and references of all articles and selected studies conducted on children (0–18 years old), assessing children’s preferences or opinions about colour of oral dosage forms as either a primary or secondary objective or as an anecdotal record. A total of 989 publications were identified and, after screening, 18 publications were included in the review. Red and pink were the most liked colours and there appeared to be a relationship between the colour of a medicine and expected taste/flavour. The review also highlighted a scarcity of information, usually collected as an anecdotal record. Several gaps in the current knowledge were underlined, emphasizing the need of patient-centred studies to understand if the use of certain colours can improve or worsen the acceptability of a paediatric medicine. This will help inform pharmaceutical manufacturers and regulators on the role and need of colours in children’s medicines beyond quality purposes

Towards the development of a paediatric biopharmaceutics classification system:results of a survey of experts

The aim of this research survey was to understand current global thinking around the need for and development of a paediatric biopharmaceutics classification system (pBCS) to be used for the development of paediatric medicines and regulatory purposes (e.g. Biowaivers). A literature review highlighted the paucity of data in this area and therefore a survey was developed to better understand this topic to identify areas of common thinking and highlight future research needs. Global experts in paediatric biopharmaceutics were identified from existing networks and public forums. An online survey was developed and circulated broadly to maximise participation. Sixty individuals (including academics, health care professionals, pharmaceutical industry scientists and regulators) completed the survey, bringing together their views on the need for a pBCS. The results highlighted that the area of greatest concern was the definition of BCS II and IV drugs within this population and additional research is required to generate evidence to underpin this issue. In questions relating to permeability and dissolution consensus was generally reached within the expert population suggesting that little additional research is required to define suitable criteria. More than 90% of those experts who participated agreed that a pBCS would be useful for paediatric populations with a greater need identified for the younger populations (newborn and infants compared to adolescents). The results presented will facilitate further discussion and research into the evidence to underpin a relevant pBCS. These results highlight the need for additional evidence and guidance in this area

Materiality in the future of history: things, practices, and politics

Frank Trentmann is professor of history at Birkbeck College, University of London. From 2002 to 2007, he was director of the £5 million Cultures of Consumption research program, cofunded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC). He is working on a book for Penguin, The Consuming Passion: How Things Came to Seduce, Enrich, and Define Our Lives, from the Seventeenth Century to the Twenty‐First. This article is one of a pair seeking to facilitate greater exchange between history and the social sciences. Its twin—“Crossing Divides: Globalization and Consumption in History” (forthcoming in the Handbook of Globalization Studies, ed. Bryan Turner)—shows what social scientists (and contemporary historians) might learn from earlier histories. The piece here follows the flow in the other direction. Many thanks to the ESRC for grant number RES‐052‐27‐002 and, for their comments, to Heather Chappells, Steve Pincus, Elizabeth Shove, and the editor and the reviewer

Colour of medicines and children's acceptability? A systematic literature review of children's perceptions about colours of oral dosage forms

The colour of a product plays an important role in consumer experiences, and in the context of pharmaceutical products, this could potentially affect a patient's expectations, behaviours, and adherence. Several studies have been conducted on adults, but little is known about children's opinions on colours of medicines and to what extent medicines' colour affects their acceptability. To address this gap, a systematic search in PubMed, Scopus, MEDLINE, and Web of Science was conducted. Two authors independently screened the titles, abstracts, and references of all articles and selected studies conducted on children (0–18 years old), assessing children's preferences or opinions about colour of oral dosage forms as either a primary or secondary objective or as an anecdotal record. A total of 989 publications were identified and, after screening, 18 publications were included in the review. Red and pink were the most liked colours and there appeared to be a relationship between the colour of a medicine and expected taste/flavour. The review also highlighted a scarcity of information, usually collected as an anecdotal record. Several gaps in the current knowledge were underlined, emphasizing the need of patient-centred studies to understand if the use of certain colours can improve or worsen the acceptability of a paediatric medicine. This will help inform pharmaceutical manufacturers and regulators on the role and need of colours in children's medicines beyond quality purposes

Preparative isolation, fractionation and chemical characterization of dissolved organics from natural and industrially derived bitumen-influenced groundwaters from the Athabasca River watershed

Recent analytical advances have provided evidence that groundwater affected by oil sands process-affected water (OSPW) is reaching the Athabasca River at one location. To understand and discriminate the toxicological risks posed by OSPW-influenced groundwater relative to groundwaters associated with natural oil sands deposits, these highly complex mixtures of soluble organics were subjected to toxicological characterization through effects directed analysis. A recently-developed preparative fractionation methodology was applied to bitumen-influenced groundwaters and successfully isolated dissolved organics from both industrial and natural sources into three chemically distinct fractions (F1, F2, F3), enabling multiple toxicological assessments. Analytical techniques included electrospray ionization high resolution mass spectrometry (ESI-HRMS), liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC-QToF/MS), gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC–MS), and synchronous fluorescence spectroscopy (SFS) methods, which did not reveal obvious differences between sources. Comparisons between fractions within each source consistently demonstrated that F3 contained compounds with greater polarity than F2, which in turn was more polar than F1. The abundance of O2 species was confined to F1, including naphthenic acids often cited for being the primary toxicants within bitumen-influenced waters. This result is consistent with earlier work on aged OSPW, as well as with other extraction methods, suggesting that additional factors other than molecular weight and the presence of acid functionalities play a prominent role in defining compound polarities and toxicities within complex bitumen-derived organic mixtures. The similarities in organic abundances, chemical speciation, aromaticity, and double bond equivalents, concomitant with inorganic mixture similarities, demonstrate the resemblances of bitumen-influenced groundwaters regardless of the source, and reinforce the need for more advanced targeted analyses for source differentiation.This work was funded under the Oil Sands Monitoring Program, and is a contribution to the Program, but does not necessarily reflect the position of the Program. Internal resources from Environment and Climate Change Canada were also used to fund this research